GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK 3
UN Environment Programme
reviewed by Steve Booth
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This book and accompanying CD ROM is an amazing compendium of facts, figures,
graphs, tables, satellite photographs and descriptions of the environment
and the problems we face. It gives an overview of the present crisis, and
projections for the next 30 years. There is a fine description of the rise
in environmental awareness since the 1960s, written from a UN / NGO point
of view. A time line illustrates key events through this period; conferences
and treaties. All throughout, facts are given. Global warming is speeding
up, with predicted temperature rises between 1.4 C and 5.8 C over the 21st
century. 3 M people die every year from water related diseases.
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The results of scientific research are tabulated, but also presented visually,
as with the startling photograph of the ozone hole on page 213, reaching
up to Chile. Yet, disgracefully, America has opted out of the Kyoto Protocols.
The 1997 - 98 El Nino is frequently referred to, and many statistics about
this are given. Africa produces less that 3.5% of global emissions, but
there were droughts in 1973-74, 1984-85, 1987, 1992-94, 1999-2000, and the
continent bears many of the consequences of global warming. Cars and industrialization
bring respiratory diseases in cities like Lagos. Floods caused by El Nino
result in water supply contamination, which in turn starts cholera outbreaks.
Then there is the Asian brown cloud. 12 out of the 15 world's worst polluted
cities are in Asia.
The book divides the world up into colour coded regions - Europe, Africa,
Eastern Europe, Latin America, Asia Pacific, North America, West Asia, the
Polar Regions. This helps keep the problems in slightly more manageable
portions, but there is still this sense we are being overwhelmed. A graph
in the North American section [p 231] shows, not just that the temperatures
are rising, but also that the extreme peaks and troughs of hot and cold
diverge wildly from the centre of the trend. The climate is less stable.
A section deals with disasters, which have increased threefold, while costs
rose ninefold, since the 1960s. Some are natural. Some are caused by human
activity - Seveso, Bhopal, Sandoz, Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Exxon Valdez,
the Baia Mare River Danube cyanide spill in Romania. The spectacular, headline
grabbing events, hurricanes, mudslides, earthquakes, tend to mask long running
problems like over-intensive fishing, deforestation, the burning of the
tropical rain forests, and desertification. Perhaps the world's worst single
ecological man made catastrophe has been the drying up of the Aral Sea;
startlingly illustrated in satellite illustrations reproduced on page 296.
FOUR OPTIONS:
The book sets out the future for the human race, under four sets of assumptions:
Markets First, Policy First, Security First, and Sustainability First.
- 'Markets First' is basically the Global Thatcherism, Neo-Con agenda
we all despise. Burning off more and more fossil fuel pollutes the atmosphere,
climate change speeds up. Poverty and inequality grows, progress slows
- Under 'Policy First', everything becomes regulated by the UN and NGO
type bodies. Even the IMF and WTO become benign. Concerted action through
civic society slows the rate at which things get worse
- With 'Security First' we get the George W Bush, David W Blunkett agenda;
multinationals, Enron style corruption, Mafia, private police forces, ID
cards, totalitarian, authoritarian states, gated communities, unregulated,
sanitation-free mega cities, pollution, xenophobia, wars, gmos, toxic waste
dumps
- Lastly, with 'Sustainability First', a new sustainability paradigm takes
hold everywhere, moving away from consumerism, towards simplicity, co-operation
and community. The internet, more access to the facts, and better analyses
enable timely action. Obviously, it is in these four scenarios that the
ideological assumptions of the authors are most laid bare
It is not possible to do full justice to this book in such a short review.
The facts, figures and graphs, all collected together, put about as much
environmental information into one package as it is possible to handle.
It is well presented, and clear to understand. Every school and college,
every public library ought to have one. If we are to act to try to stop
environmental damage, we need information and analysis. A lot of what we
need is right here. Buy it!
– Email: Stephen Booth
Earthscan
120 Pentonville Road
London
N1 9JN
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